Several Argentine economists are discussing the fact that, should Argentina default, this will not mean the end of the world. Quite the contrary.
“It’s the vultures who are isolated, from an international standpoint,” said anti-IMF economist Aldo Ferrer. “Their only friends are some extreme right-wing Republican legislators and some other [allies] who reside in Argentina.”
But, he added, “we should abandon the idea that if there’s no agreement, the world comes crashing down. Argentina will continue to function, despite the vultures.” The nation has a “promising future,” and a country that is growing, can pay, he said. It will not collapse.
Others echo this argument. Agustin D’Attellis, a pro-government economist from the Gran Makro grouping, told Radio America that there’s no reason for alarm. “The macroeconomy is sound,” and the country can pay. This is not 2001, he said, when Argentina truly was devastated. Should there be a default, there will be some tensions with the black market dollar, “where there is a small group of sophisticated investors who manipulate that market and obtain huge profits, but the Central Bank has tools to handle this….” While there will not be the hoped-for growth in the second half of the year, he added, “there will not be a worrisome scenario of steep economic decline, or job loss, or anything like it.”
D’Attellis stated that behind all the dire warnings of catastrophe are efforts by the vultures and their controllers to go for “something much bigger,” to create an environment of fear, “to push Argentina to negotiate before and after [the deadline of July 30],” and go after assets such as the Vaca Muerta shale oil/gas reserve, which the vultures have their eyes on.